This is the craziest presidential campaign in my adult life. (Not to mention that it is also the election that has already proven—no argument about it—that our election system is broken beyond repair.) 2008 has become an exciting movie in brilliant color, with an interesting added hue of “blank.”
Real Primary Colors
Let’s talk about blank. We can find important non-Republican-red/non-Democratic-blue stripes—blanks—on both sides of the political coin.
Independents, the ultimate absence of red or blue, usually chose to vote in Democratic primaries, but some voted Republican. These independent “blanks” were a very important source of the momentum that lit the rocket that Republican John McCain rode to the nomination, while many Republicans chose not to vote for him. No red pundits saw that coming. They were busy looking at the familiar red-and-blue map of political America.
On the Democratic side, independent voters are not the blank in question. They split their votes along the same Clinton-Obama lines that Democrats did. However, thanks to the excitement Barack Obama was able to ignite early on and to the novel appearance of a woman and a non-white candidate, the non-red/non-blue on this side is voters with no history at all in the polling place. Young people are voting alongside mature Americans who’ve never before chosen to vote. No blue sages saw this coming.
Looking at the established red and blue, things actually are still less clear. Democrats worried about national security tell the press they’re voting Republican this cycle. Meantime, news agencies have no trouble finding usually red “values voters” who say they’re not getting what their Republican votes were meant to “buy.” Many of them, including a significant minority of evangelicals, say they will vote Democratic.
Reds voting blue, blues voting red, blanks making choices that change one party while previously apolitical people, another flavor of blank, are jostling the choices in the other…whoa! So absolutely, the new red and blue is pure purple, toned down and kept totally unpredictable by the stripes of blank.
This is going to be the grandest political year since at least 1960, when Kennedy won, postponing the tragic Nixon presidency by eight years. No, maybe we actually have to go further back. The 2008 campaign may actually be on a par with 1924 when the experienced voters of the United States held their breath as women in every state were legally permitted to vote for the first time. For the record, Republican Calvin Coolidge won over Democrat John W. Davis and Socialist Robert M. Lafollette that year. Hearts pounded and breaths were held as the votes were counted.
To paraphrase Bette Davis (as Margo Channing in All About Eve), “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy election year,” and a purple one.
About the Delegate Count
I checked on March 8. The New York Times was reporting that Obama had collected 1,500.5 delegates to Clinton’s 1,394; CNN came up with Obama at 1,527 and Clinton at 1,428. To be fair, both admitted that the counts were not “soft.” What’s more, if you do the math, you’ll see these seemingly different sets of numbers work out to the same percentages: Obama, 52 percent; Clinton, 48 percent. Meantime, there are all those unpredictable, potentially changeable super delegates. Also, one-third of the Texas delegates haven’t been awarded. We’ll wait till June for those.
Finally, not considering super delegate switcheroos and the seating of banned delegates, there is now only a very slim mathematical possibility of either Democratic candidate collecting the required 2,025 delegates to become the candidate of the party before the convention.
This really is exciting.
Maui and Hawai‘i Politics
Later, time and space permitting, we can talk about how to give the 50th state a real voice in national politics, but for 2008, we islanders got at least a squeak of a voice. All those states rushing to the front of the calendar gave Hawai‘i a bit of a chance to matter, but just barely.
On the other hand, 49 states are almost-kinda shut out of Hawai‘i’s internal political practices and choices, except in the funding area. That being the case, we really ought to be very focused on and interested in state and county races. I’m counting on the super-rise in political interest in our Democratic caucus to boost political participation into November, so I want to tell you when you have to get going to be part of the process. When? Now!
If you want to “throw the rascals out” this year, run for office. That means running for Maui County Council from the district you live in or taking a shot at the state legislature, which is also a district thing. Maybe you’re not the one who should be running for office. If that’s the case, encourage the people you think are perfect for County Council, State Senate or the State House to run. Be prepared to sign their nominating papers and to get your friends to do the same. Volunteer to host a fundraising event. Offer to help register voters…well, do something. Get involved.
Do it now.