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Maui Weekly’s “Old School” Primary Election Forecast

Our experts have their own crystal ball.

August 5, 2014
Maui Weekly Staff (editor@mauiweekly.com) , Maui Weekly

Those who follow election forecasting are probably familiar with Nate Silver, the statistician who started out analyzing baseball data and went on to become the nation's most reliable predictor of election outcomes using modern mathematical tools. In the presidential election of 2008, Silver correctly predicted the outcome of 49 of the 50 states.

Here at the Maui Weekly, our forecasting techniques are distinctly more "old school." We use a small (actually, very small) sample of wise men and women who have been following local politics for decades. The method may not be as modern as Silver's, but readers may find our predictions of interest.

Our sample includes a total of four old-timers: By ethnicity, there is one Hawaiian, one Japanese, one Portuguese and one Caucasian. The group consists of three men and one woman. Three are Democrats; one a Republican. Three are born and raised in Hawai'i; one is a longtime island resident born on the Mainland. All have been candidates or have held an elected office. Their average age is 72. They all prefer to remain anonymous.

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Maui Weekly’s “Old School” Primary Election Forecast
Our experts have their own crystal ball.

They agree that the following candidates will win their primaries: Tulsi Gabbard (U.S. House), Shan Tsutsui (lieutenant governor), James "Kimo" Apana (State House), Alan Arakawa (mayor), Mike Victorino (County Council) and Don Couch (County Council).

In the other races, their votes are split (see sidebar above).

 
 
 

 

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